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Chilly winter forecast as La Nina returns
Steve Mertl
Yahoo! Canada News
For people living in a largely urbanized country, Canadians remain surprisingly obsessed with winter.
Back in the day, it mattered. Pioneers needed to know how much food to lay in, whether to chance long hunting trip.
First Nations people knew that observing nature revealed signs of what to expect. Gord Restoule, 73, of the Dokis First Nation near Sudbury, Ont., learned the skills from his elders.
He's retired from publicly prognosticating but says via email that knowing your local environment, especially the behaviour of birds, animals and plans, can reveal clues about the weather, even in the city. A frenzy at bird feeders means bad weather is likely on the way. If pine trees are loaded with cones, expect a long, hard winter
Maybe it doesn't matter anymore. Weather guru David Phillips says Canadians' image of themselves as a winter people is a myth. The best evidence: last winter, "the winter that never was."
"We boast about the fact that we shun blizzards and sneer at frostbite. Forget it," says Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, recalling the euphoria of last year's record-warm and short winter.
We loved it. Lower heating bills, no desperate need to flee south on a break, lower snow-removal costs for government.
"We're not all ice fishers and snowboarders," says Phillips. "The vast majority of Canadians were thinking, wow, if this is global warming, bring it on."
So now the payback. Word is this winter is shaping up to be colder and snowier than normal.
"The first half of winter will probably not be as winter-like, compared to the second half, where La Nina will kick in and be more of a dominant force," says Phillips.
La Nina is the evil twin sister of El Nino, a cooling of the ocean in the central and eastern Pacific region that heralds colder weather for North America. El Nino has the opposite effect, which triggered last year's balmy winter.
Scientists are predicting a moderate to intense La Nina this winter. But before you race down to Canadian Tire for another snow shovel, Phillips points out the winter's predicted coldness, if it materializes at all because such long-range forecasts aren't ironclad, is relative.
With global warming or perhaps cyclic weather trends, winter ain't what it used to be, he says.
"Anything that is even normal this year will seem more brutal, more difficult, than last year," says Phillips.
A look at the weather office's seasonal forecasts show Western Canada will bearing the brunt of La Nina's effect once winter really sets in.
"You see most of the West being colder than normal," says Phillips. "But from a little bit of the southern prairie through most of southern Ontario and Atlantic Canada we're showing conditions to be a little bit warmer than normal.
"So the full effects of La Nina may not necessarily get to the East."
But other factors, whether it's long-term weather cycles or climate change, could mitigate the bad girl's effects.
"It's a huge country and the signal can be very different on the west coast than it is on the east coast," he says.
Unlike El Nino, with its tropical vibe, La Nina can be capricious. It doesn't create weather extremes like ice storms or mega snow dumps. But expect frequent changes through the winter, says Phillips, "two weeks of this and two weeks of that . . . more surprises, something for everybody."
British Columbia will bear the brunt of a La Nina winter, colder and weather than normal, while the Prairies will see a late start and face the toughest part of winter from January on, especially in the north.
Phillips says Central Canada should expect warmer than normal temperatures, more snow and storms, "but not the ice age cometh," says Phillips. La Nina may not reach that far but he points out Ontario and Quebec enjoyed El Nino's full effects last winter.
Predicting Atlantic Canada's winter is tougher in part because north Atlantic waters are two to three degrees warmer than normal, which could delay things. But the region is vulnerable to the threat of consecutive dumps of snow.
If scientific forecast models generated by super computers aren't your thing, check out this guide to predicting winter from the Waterman and Hill Traveller's Companion Natural Event Guide.
The test with 12 onions looks especially entertaining.
Your text to link...
so.... is anyone excited for winter this month? =x
Yahoo! Canada News
For people living in a largely urbanized country, Canadians remain surprisingly obsessed with winter.
Back in the day, it mattered. Pioneers needed to know how much food to lay in, whether to chance long hunting trip.
First Nations people knew that observing nature revealed signs of what to expect. Gord Restoule, 73, of the Dokis First Nation near Sudbury, Ont., learned the skills from his elders.
He's retired from publicly prognosticating but says via email that knowing your local environment, especially the behaviour of birds, animals and plans, can reveal clues about the weather, even in the city. A frenzy at bird feeders means bad weather is likely on the way. If pine trees are loaded with cones, expect a long, hard winter
Maybe it doesn't matter anymore. Weather guru David Phillips says Canadians' image of themselves as a winter people is a myth. The best evidence: last winter, "the winter that never was."
"We boast about the fact that we shun blizzards and sneer at frostbite. Forget it," says Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, recalling the euphoria of last year's record-warm and short winter.
We loved it. Lower heating bills, no desperate need to flee south on a break, lower snow-removal costs for government.
"We're not all ice fishers and snowboarders," says Phillips. "The vast majority of Canadians were thinking, wow, if this is global warming, bring it on."
So now the payback. Word is this winter is shaping up to be colder and snowier than normal.
"The first half of winter will probably not be as winter-like, compared to the second half, where La Nina will kick in and be more of a dominant force," says Phillips.
La Nina is the evil twin sister of El Nino, a cooling of the ocean in the central and eastern Pacific region that heralds colder weather for North America. El Nino has the opposite effect, which triggered last year's balmy winter.
Scientists are predicting a moderate to intense La Nina this winter. But before you race down to Canadian Tire for another snow shovel, Phillips points out the winter's predicted coldness, if it materializes at all because such long-range forecasts aren't ironclad, is relative.
With global warming or perhaps cyclic weather trends, winter ain't what it used to be, he says.
"Anything that is even normal this year will seem more brutal, more difficult, than last year," says Phillips.
A look at the weather office's seasonal forecasts show Western Canada will bearing the brunt of La Nina's effect once winter really sets in.
"You see most of the West being colder than normal," says Phillips. "But from a little bit of the southern prairie through most of southern Ontario and Atlantic Canada we're showing conditions to be a little bit warmer than normal.
"So the full effects of La Nina may not necessarily get to the East."
But other factors, whether it's long-term weather cycles or climate change, could mitigate the bad girl's effects.
"It's a huge country and the signal can be very different on the west coast than it is on the east coast," he says.
Unlike El Nino, with its tropical vibe, La Nina can be capricious. It doesn't create weather extremes like ice storms or mega snow dumps. But expect frequent changes through the winter, says Phillips, "two weeks of this and two weeks of that . . . more surprises, something for everybody."
British Columbia will bear the brunt of a La Nina winter, colder and weather than normal, while the Prairies will see a late start and face the toughest part of winter from January on, especially in the north.
Phillips says Central Canada should expect warmer than normal temperatures, more snow and storms, "but not the ice age cometh," says Phillips. La Nina may not reach that far but he points out Ontario and Quebec enjoyed El Nino's full effects last winter.
Predicting Atlantic Canada's winter is tougher in part because north Atlantic waters are two to three degrees warmer than normal, which could delay things. But the region is vulnerable to the threat of consecutive dumps of snow.
If scientific forecast models generated by super computers aren't your thing, check out this guide to predicting winter from the Waterman and Hill Traveller's Companion Natural Event Guide.
The test with 12 onions looks especially entertaining.
Your text to link...
so.... is anyone excited for winter this month? =x
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