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Vancouver Real Estate

Kevin M.Kevin M.
edited August 2009 in General
april2009-analysis.png
One of the reasons I like following the Vancouver real estate market is because it moves at the speed of molasses and that’s a comfortable pace when investment is involved.

Every market moves up and down but no 2 markets move up and down the same way. Unlike the stock market where a bottom can be a simple down spike in the opposite direction of the upward peak, real estate has a flat area after the downward spiral. As you can see in the edited 30 year graph, this flat period (or bottom) in the Real Estate market is measured in years. (yes years, the speed of molasses). So until we start to see 6 months of flatness it’s safe to say downward is the trend.

Now this isn’t what the Realtors I follow on twitter and listen to on blogs will have you believe. Realtors generally are saying the market is heading back up and that business has never been better. They get angry at every piece of news that says otherwise (like this post is doing). Well, I’m not a Realtor and I don’t have any reason to make a rosey picture out of what the market is doing like the Vancouver Real Estate Board’s Market Report always seems to do but I am in the trenches with them and my ear is to the ground.

The spring market is usually a great time for home sales and it’s a spring market right now. A few things to note this time around though is that interest rates can’t really get much lower so come mid May when that spring market ends, what’s going to save us this time? Oh yea, the Olympics.
Anyone on here interested in real esate? Thoughts?

Comments

  • lazyGUY
    edited April 2009
    While its not in Vancouver, we've invested in property near surrey central, which is supposedly the centre of investment nowadays. Not sure what direction the markets heading in though. Some ppl are saying its gunna crash after the Olympics, some saying Olympics will help it get back on track. Guess we just have to wait and see, no point in analyzing trends.
  • DaNoobie
    edited April 2009
    I'm waiting to see what happens after the Olympics. Like, around June to December of 2010.

    I actually wanted to buy around there too lazyguy, but unless the market drops, I cant really afford to. The way I see it, if I move out, its super convenient. Theres a couple supermarkets within walking distance, a rec center, convenient transit, etc.
  • NukeChem
    edited August 2009
    I know. I was driving out by 16th and Oakish and like, what the hell, there's these $800,000 homes. I just facepalmed mentally and kept going.

    Who the blazes can afford even a $250k condo? I punched that into a mortgage calculator and it was like $1200 a month minimum on the payments.
  • lazyGUY
    edited August 2009
    DaNoobie;53406 said:
    I'm waiting to see what happens after the Olympics. Like, around June to December of 2010.

    I actually wanted to buy around there too lazyguy, but unless the market drops, I cant really afford to. The way I see it, if I move out, its super convenient. Theres a couple supermarkets within walking distance, a rec center, convenient transit, etc.
    you can rent out my apartment :P

    but ya completion of construction is estimated to be a bit after the olympics
    18th floor, 1 bedroom, most hightech building in western canada apparently
  • ikkaku
    edited August 2009
    western canada.. doesn't mean much =P
  • DaNoobie
    edited August 2009
    fuck renting
  • nicole
    edited August 2009
    NukeChem;58977 said:
    I know. I was driving out by 16th and Oakish and like, what the hell, there's these $800,000 homes. I just facepalmed mentally and kept going.

    Who the blazes can afford even a $250k condo? I punched that into a mortgage calculator and it was like $1200 a month minimum on the payments.
    $250 isn't unrealistic, no? In Yaletown it's upwards of $350-$400. That and/or Coal Harbour would really be the only places I would want a place if I lived in Vancouver...
  • lazyGUY
    edited August 2009
    agreed 250 isnt bad at all for a condo in vancouver
  • Kevin M.Kevin M.
    edited August 2009
    You can't say whether 250 is a good deal or bad deal unless you know other stuff like the size and location of the place...and I think he was referring to affordability. Thanks to inflation and stuff a lot of people have basically been priced out of being able to own a house. It's expensive to own a residence in Vancouver, whereas you go to any other province it's a lot cheaper to own a home. At the end of the day, you can either live in a shoebox in Vancouver for 250 or a whole house with a backyard in Calgary.
  • NukeChem
    edited August 2009
    I know. I've basically resigned myself to moving to Vancouver Island if I want to get a place big enough to ramble about a bit.
  • nicole
    edited August 2009
    Kevin M.;59035 said:
    You can't say whether 250 is a good deal or bad deal unless you know other stuff like the size and location of the place...and I think he was referring to affordability. Thanks to inflation and stuff a lot of people have basically been priced out of being able to own a house. It's expensive to own a residence in Vancouver, whereas you go to any other province it's a lot cheaper to own a home. At the end of the day, you can either live in a shoebox in Vancouver for 250 or a whole house with a backyard in Calgary.
    As compared to other major waterfront cities, Vancouver is priced very reasonably...

    I totally see where people come from in saying that it's difficult to live in a city where 600sq feet is upwards of $250,000, but it depends on your lifestyle. I live in the suburbs with a 6000 square foot house and 2 acres, courtesy of my parents (!!), but I can't wait to eventually live downtown, at least for a few years. It's all about what you're looking for. A house with a backyard in Calgary may be comparable to a studio in Vancouver, but from what I've seen, apartment rentals in dt Calgary isn't terribly far off from Vancouver. And I'd much rather be in Vancouver...
  • Simon604
    edited August 2009
    Vancouver is an awesome place to live if you have an active/trendy lifestyle. That's what gives Vancouver it's value...and compared to other cities that don't have anywhere close to the recreation and scenery that we enjoy, it is reasonably priced. It's the market that determines the price, so if the value of living is there, then of course the price will be reflective of that. Coal Harbor is so nice...
  • ikkaku
    edited August 2009
    Calgary recently had their housing market go crazy, which was exactly like how Vancouver had theirs for the past 10 years? Undoubtedly they will catch up or be comparable soon enough.

    I guess what really makes the GVA worth so much is because most of the larger cities are quite close together. In Alberta or Ontario, a lot of the times you need to spend a decent amount of time to commute. Same with the states.
  • Simon604
    edited August 2009
    I heard houses in California are dirt cheap right now...

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